US President Barack Obama’s decision to freeze the deployment of the components of the US National Missile Defense (NMD) in Eastern Europe was no surprise to international observers. The obvious reason is that Obama himself has promised during his presidential campaign to reconsider the NMD program originally initiated for the missile defense of all of America’s 50 states. The deployment of the defense network began from the state of Alaska in the northern extremes of the United States and on to the State of California and then it crept to England, Norway and Denmark until it finally reached countries in Eastern Europe with the deployment of two X-band Radar Systems in the Czech Republic and 10 missile bases in Poland. The latter steps angered Russia which looks upon them as a direct threat to its national security and a tilt in the current strategic balance between the two powers considering, moreover, that the Bush administration has cancelled the missile defense organizing treaty signed between the two countries in 1972.
In response, Russia threatened to deploy Alexander B missiles in the Kalingrad enclave between Lithuania and Poland in addition to a series of other steps such as freezing the “Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe”, suspending negotiation with the United States on the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty – START-2 – in addition to creating problems to the US policies in the world’s hottest spots such as Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea, Latin America, and the Middle East. Such actions on the part of Russia could seriously harm the effective implementation of the Obama Administration’s foreign policy or the ability of the tools if that policy to resolve the intricate problems of those areas. The Russian measures could also make the United States feel that it needs to have a kind of coordination of political and strategic positions with Russian to ensure that the Russian will not jeopardize Obama’s foreign policy. This becomes even more evident in view of the fact that the US NMD program was drawing huge amounts of financial resources from the US Defense budget (set at 612 billion US Dollars in the 2010 budget) which need to be saved and directed to the war in Afghanistan and the deployment of US troops in Iraq and other parts of the world at a time when the United States is struggling to face the global effects of the world economic turndown.
Obama was therefore obliged to make some concessions to Russia in a field that has no crucial importance at present nor shall it be so in the foreseeable future since there are no real threats from Russia or china or even from Iran or North Korea to hit the United States. Those countries know very well the huge cost they will have to pay if they threaten to launch a missile attack on America. Besides there are two important factors that tend to neutralize the effects of freezing the deployment of the NMD program; the first factor is that Obama did not stop the development and deployment of the program but kept it on within the United States and through Western Europe, at a distance from the Russian borders, to avoid provocation; and the second is that Obama tried to balance the measure by supporting phase two of the US missile shield which provides for defending the operations theatres by the use of modern missile defense systems known as Theater Missile Defense (TMD) which will be deployed in the world’s hot spots, something that is not likely to upset Russia. Another important thing that Obama also had in mind is a technical breakthrough on the part of Russia who has succeeded in the development of an electronic interference device attachable to the Russian missile heads to disable the action of the US missile defenses.
A further concession made to the Russians by Obama was giving them freehand to restore their influence in the Balkans, particularly in Georgia and Abkhazia, where the breakout of armed struggle last year threatened to undermine Russia’s influence and Russian dignity in the region. The region (the Balkans) in fact witnessed an active spread of Israeli political and military influence during recent years. The results of the war in Georgia have uncovered that Georgian troops were fighting with Israeli weapons and with the help of Israeli experts. The intervention has led to a Russian-Israeli deal under which it was agreed that Israel would stop arming Georgia and the training of Georgian troops while Russia shall, in exchange, stop the supply of sophisticated arms to Iran and Syria especially in relation to air defense systems such as S-300.
How Israel is Benefiting from Freezing the US Missile Shield
Israel is giving serious attention and working very hard to develop its missile defense system because of the high threat from Arab and Iranian medium and short range ballistic missiles to the israeli depths. This became clear in the 2006 summer war on Lebanon where Hizbollah used about 4000 short range missiles to hit cities and settlements in Northern and Central Israel. During the January 2009 war on Gaza, Hamas used more than 300 short range missiles to hit cities in southern Israel. Israeli intelligence expects that Hamas and Hizbollah will also receive longer range Iranian-made missiles which can reach Tel Aviv and other cities in central and southern Israel. Iran also has medium range ballistic missiles namely Chehab and Sijjil with ranges of more than 2500 km enough to cover the entire Israeli depths. Syria, the main ally of Iran and Hizbollah, has a huge arsenal of Scud B missiles with a range of 300 km, Scud D missiles with up to 500 km and Scud D missiles with up to 800 km range.
Israel has therefore set a multi-dimensional short run plan to establish missile defenses capable of facing these different types of missile threats in all phases of their launch. The plan which is being carried out in cooperation with the United States assumes that the Iranian and Syrian missiles could carry chemical and biological heads of mass destruction and has been developed along the following lines:
First: Early Warnings of Missile Attacks:
Israel has developed its capabilities of early warning systems against missile attacks based on its Ofeq 7 satellites, a network of 60 radar stations of various capabilities and 4 falcon systems of aerial warning born on Boeing 707 planes. Israel is also linked to US satellite warning system based in the state Colorado and supported by US DSP satellites. Warning from this system arrives at exactly the same time at the command and control headquarters of US Central Command at Assiliya in Qatar and the Israeli Center of Warning, Command and Control South of Tel Aviv and from there to all of Israel's Air and missile defenses. Israel also acquired an FBX-T Radar System which is part of the US NMD missile defense system and was installed on two 400-meters high towers at Nava Tim airbase under full US supervision and control. The system gives warning of the approach of Iranian Chehab missiles just 5.5 minutes after their launch in Iran enabling Israeli air interception missiles to intercept them outside the Israeli territory. Once launched from Iran, Chehab missile needs 11 minutes to reach Israel. It means the radar saves half the travel time of the incoming missile, operates with X-band frequency and has a detection and tracking range of up to 1000 km.
Second: Systems for the Interception of Medium Range Missiles:
Israel has many missile systems for the interception of medium range enemy missile such as Chehab and Scud missiles including about 10 battalions of modified Hawk interceptors, 7 battalions of Patriot Pack 2 and 3 battalions of Patriot Pack 3 all of which are of US origin. There is also the Haits –Arrow system, a joint US-Israeli production, of which Israel has 3 battalions. The latter system was developed after many live tests some of which successfully intercepted mock enemy missiles representing Scud and Chehab missiles. The last of these over 20 tests was conducted in the United States. The United States is providing 3 billion dollars to support the development of Israel's Haits-3 system which has an interception range of 70 km at an attitude of 10-50 km. In the context of Israel's utilization of the US Theater Missile Defense System, it made a deal with the United States to acquire an operations theater defense system called Theater High-Attitude Area Defense (THAAD) which will provide cover for the positions of Israeli forces in their areas of deployment along with vital strategic and population targets in the face of enemy missiles with ranges from 100 to 2000 km such as Chehab, Scud C and Scud D at altitudes of up to 150 km and has a supersonic speed of 8 mach.
Third: Systems for intercepting Short Range Missiles:
The free short-range surface to surface missile systems of 5-30 km range constitute the greatest problem to Israel at this time because they are hard to detect and therefore difficult to intercept as they travel at low levels which makes them undetectable by the radar systems available today. The shortness of their travel time also makes it impossible for the above-mentioned missile defense to intercept them. Israel has suffered so much from these missiles, despite their primitive nature, during the war on Southern Lebanon when missiles such as Katyusha (15 km) and Iranian missiles such as Ra’d (20 km) and Khayber (70 km) landed in the cities of Haifa and the Golan after covering all the cities and settlements of northern Israel as part of the missile flooding strategy. This means that each single target was hailed with 15 to 20 to 30 missiles until the total number of missiles fired during this war came to 4000 causing casualties and material losses never suffered in the Israeli depths before. Hizbollah still has Zilzal and Zilzal 2 which were not used in this war though they have a range of 150 km making them capable of reaching Tel Aviv. During the recent war on Gaza, Hamas has launched 340 Al-Qassam missiles with a range of 18 km and 213 Grad missiles with a range of 40 km which covered the cities of Ashdood, Beersheba and settlements and towns in southern Israel.
In the face of this threat, Israel turned to the United States asking for defense systems to protect it against short range missiles traveling at low levels while Israel's own military factories started to develop other systems for this purpose. In this connection, Israel’s Rafael Company upgraded spider system, a modified version of Bithon air to air missile. Israel’s military industries (IMI) also upgraded a 160 mm surface to surface missile into the anti-missile magic shield missile defense with a range of up to 15 km. Israel is also negotiating with the US to obtain sky Guard system, a laser defense system developed by US based Nothrob Company which can intercept incoming enemy missiles at a 10 km range. Raphael Company is now conducting joint tests with Alta Company to develop a new system called the Iron Dome consisting of three launchers and has the ability to detect and destroy short range missiles at a distance of up to 15 km.
Fourth: Joint US-Israel exercises
Over the past two years, Israel has carried out several joint military exercises with the United States some of which were conducted at Command Center levels while others were live war games using anti-missile defenses to test Israel’s ability to receive and react to warnings of incoming missile attacks from multiple war fronts at the same time such as simultaneous attacks from Iran, Lebanon’s Hizbollah, Syria and Hamas in Gaza. Last June, Israel staged an exercise involving German manufactured Dolphin submarine moving it from Haifa Naval Base to the Red Sea across the Suez Canal. Israel has 3 submarines of this type now and has also signed a contract for another two which will join in 2010. By then, it will be equipped with five submarines armed with nuclear-head cruise missiles with a range of 2000 km (ready to deploy in the gulf of Oman and hit Iran if the latter hits Israel with Chehab missiles). Last July, two Israeli Sa'ar-5 frigates also crossed the Suez Canal to the Red Sea for joint naval exercises with US naval units. Observers believe that the exercises were a clear indicator of Israel's ability to move its naval striking force and place it within a short distance from Iran at short notice. Regarding the air forces, Israeli F-15 and F-16 fighters exercised long distance flying in the United States starting from Nellis Air Base in Nevada Desert with the participation of Israeli Hercules – C 130 – transport planes along with testing Israeli Haits missiles, the anti-missile interceptors, along the western coast of the United States.
On September 21, 2009, the Israeli Defense Ministry announced that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak met his US counterpart Robert Gates during a visit made by he former to the United States a few weeks ahead of joint US-Israeli military exercises held in the Mediterranean Sea in October 2009, described as the largest ever between the two countries. In their meeting, the two ministers concentrated on the threat from Iran, bilateral cooperation and the prospective role of Israel in the new US Missile Defense System announced in mid-September 2009. The goal of the exercises was set to be a training to face a possible missile attack launched against Israel from multiple parties. Two US Naval units arrived first at Haifa Seaport to start preparations for the joint exercises planned to concentrate on using anti-missile interceptor missiles from both countries including Israel's Haits missile and US-made patriot pack 2, Patriot Pack 3, THAAD and Aegis which were to be deployed in Israel for the duration of the exercises. The US and Israeli Air Forces will be involved in the exercises code-named Cobra of the Juniper trees, the most large scale exercises staged by the two countries since 2001.
Fifth: According to an Israeli source, the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to persuade the US to leave some of the equipment used in Israel to be used in case Israel comes under real missile attack. The request was mainly about the anti-missile interceptor missiles complementary to the Aegis Radar System known as standard – SM interceptors. This is because the new Anti-missile US missile defense system expected to be deployed in Europe instead of the elements of the old NMD system is not designed to intercept long range ballistic missiles but turned its attention, instead, to short and medium range missiles. The new modified system is intended to face the direct danger from Iran which has been growing at a fast rate after Iran succeeded in boosting its missile arsenal by the introduction of multiple-phase missile "Sijjil" which is superior to Chehab missile and uses solid fuel. The news defense system, deemed by America to be more effective and less expensive, will be deployed in four phases in the following order:
1. Phase I: Will be deployed in Southern and Northern Europe and would include warship-based Aegis Radar Systems and surface to air SM-3 Missiles, Block IA designed to destroy short and medium range ballistic missiles. The system was successfully tested in February 2008 when it successfully shot down a malfunctioning US satellite. It is this system that Israel is trying to keep on its territory in anticipation of a possible war with Iran.
2. Phase II: This phase, which will be
deployed in 2015. comprises an upgraded vision of SM-3, Block IB. The system is to be deployed at Sea and on land in order to expand the limits of the area protected from incoming short and medium range missiles in Europe. The US in negotiating with the Czech Republic and Poland to host a land version of SM-3 inceptor system and other components on their territories.
3. Phase III: This phase will be deployed in 2018. It is an upgraded version of SM-3 Block IIA and is currently being developed.
4. Phase IV: Which will be deployed in 2020 and will be a more advanced model of SM-3 Block IIB missile with capability to intercept short and medium range missiles as well as long range missiles that may threaten the United States itself.
The United States is expected to deploy the Aegis system with its M-3 missiles on its warships in the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea to boost the capabilities of the Israeli and US forces in the region to intercept long range Iranian missiles. Israeli daily Maariv reported on 07/09/2009 that the US Department of Defense is considering the possibility of building missile defense bases in Israel and Turkey turning away from earlier plans to set up a missile shield in the Czech Republic and Pland. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates confirmed that the new US Defense System would provide better protection than the old one even if the intelligence information that Iran is no longer concentrating on the development of long range missiles as it is paying more attention to the development of short and medium range missiles is proven to be wrong. Gates explained that if this was so and if the Iranians were able to develop this medium range missile capability in a shorter time than expected by the intelligence agencies, the new missile defense system will give America a better chance to handle such a situation than the old one because of the availability of new technologies that give it more flexibility. Gates added that a disadvantage of the old NMD missile defense is that the interceptor missiles used in the system were designed to handle no more than five long range attack missiles and that Iran's target was to overcome the system which was proposed by the Bush Administration. The US Defense Secretary explained that the US Administration has not yet discussed the new project for an anti-missile defense system with Russia.
To reassure the Czech Republic and Poland after the United States scrapped plans to deploy some of the elements of the NMD Defense System on their territories Gates said if the old missile defense system was to deploy 10 missile bases in Poland, the new system will ensure the deployment of scores of missiles, and not only 10, as it was planned before. Unlike the old plan, the implementation of the new plan would be made at a faster rate, and instead of completing the first phase by 2017 in the old plan, it will take up to 2011 to finish the first phase of the new system. It is also expected that the new plan will cover a greater part of Europe.
Enhancing Strategic Coordination Between the US and Israel
The afore-mentioned joint exercises are Part of the military and strategic coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv, which the Obama Administration is trying to develop and enhance. In this connection, Israel believes that the Obama Administration's decision to withdraw or freeze the NMD Missile Defense System, which was strongly supported by former president George W. Bush, is a treasure for them. The underlying reason for this vehemence is that the alternative path selected by Obama goes for using Aegis Radar System and its complementary missile interceptors SM-2 and SM-3 which will be roaming the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea with the land components of the system deployed in Israel and Turkey. Obviously, the program provides unaccounted for protection for Israel.
The subject was openly discussed by Professor Deen Felking, the US physicist who was first to take initiative of the project in an interview with the Israeli Army Radio. Felking underlined the essential difference between Bush's project and Obama's project saying that the missile shield in Europe was meant to defend the US territories from long range Iranian missiles and needed time to be ready, whereas the mobile missile defense system's goal is to protect US allies in Europe and the Middle East, especially Turkey and Israel which is facing a real risk. He said the system known as Aegis, is ready now. Felking added that there is no risk of Iranian long range missile reaching the US at the moment but the immediate risk comes from medium range missiles which can hit European and Middle East countries.
It was no wonder, therefore, for Israel to welcome the US decision to freeze the deployment of the NMD missile defense in Eastern Europe. And that is why it was decided to send Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak to the United States, after the Jewish festivities to meet his US counterpart, Robert Gates, and other military officials to discuss joint coordination regarding the US step. He was also to discuss the prospect of US Israeli cooperation to include Israel's Haits-3 antimissile interceptors in the joint exercises on using those missiles.
Despite the fact that Israel has welcomed this cooperation and believes it to be a leap beyond the normal limits of the two countries' strategic coordination, there are some circles in Israel who look upon this cooperation with some suspicion and reservation fearing that the political price for that cooperation may prove to be too high. According to those circles, the Obama Administration is trying to provide maximum military protection for Israel and to make it actually get the maximum feeling of safety and security. Those Israeli circles are concerned that the US Administration could then use this protection to take bolder political steps - based on the US convictions - in the direction of advancing the peace process. In such a case, the US side could put more political pressure on the Israeli government until it pulls out of the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967 and agrees to the two-state solution.
Those sources have also said that Washington and Tel Aviv are still unable to resolve differences over two highly sensitive arms deals: the First on the F-35 fighter jet and the second on the LCS destroyer. Israel is asking to be accepted as a 50% partner in the manufacturing technology of the above-mentioned fighter with the aim of cutting down the price currently set at 100 million dollars per aircraft. The demand is rejected by the plane manufacturers Lookheed Martin. Israel is also demanding a discount on the price of the LCS destroyer currently set at 500 million US dollars. It is alleged by those sources that the US intentions with regard to maintaining Israel's superiority over all its neighbors are facing a critical test as to whether the United States would respond to the Israeli demands in relation to the two arms deals.
Barak will also try to settle the two issues during his upcoming visit to the United States. According to sources close to the Israeli Defense Minister, Barak has a good chance of success, considering that he does not oppose the US political demands in connection with the peace process.
Analytical Vision:
There is no doubt that Obama's decision to revise the US missile shield program, was a great pleasure to Russia as seen from stopping its plans to deploy Russian attack missiles Alexander B in the Russian enclave of Kalingrad between Lithuania and Poland which would have a threat to the latter, especially after the missile's range was pushed up from 280 km to 500 km. Yet the US decision was not without a price to be paid by Russia. The US Administration is trying to secure Russian cooperation in many areas most importantly an obligation to stop supplying Iran with advanced S-300 anti-missile interceptor missiles, a prospect that was a great worry to Israel. Israeli president Shimon Peres and Prime Minister Netanyahu repeatedly tripped to Moscow, in open or secret visits, to stop the consummation of such a deal with Iran, because the Russian system could neutralize any air attacks which may be carried out by Israel and/or the United States against Iran in future. The price to be paid by Russia, in return for the US decision, would also include a Russian pledge not to veto a draft resolution to impose UN sanctions against Iran if such sanctions are proposed to the Security Council by the 5+1 group, or the 5 permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany, against Iran should the next round of negotiations fail to persuade Iran to stop its Uranium Enrichment Program. In addition to Russia’s cooperation with the United States in Afghanistan by allowing supply convoys to pass through Russian territories to the NATO forces there. Also to facilitate agreement on the strategic Arms reduction treaty – START-3 with the aim of bringing the nuclear heads stocked by either Russia and the United States down to 1500 each instead of the current figure of 3000 each. Another item of cooperation would be to involve Russia in the war against terrorism – especially the al-Qaida network. Security and strategic cooperation between Russia and the United States may go as far as sharing one and the same missile defense system, an idea already proposed by Moscow and turned down by the Bush Administration. Also related is the US pledge to stop troubling Russia in its sphere of influence in the Balkans. So, after last year's wars in Georgia and Abkhazia, Russia was able to restore its control over South Ossetia taking it back from Georgia and won a pledge from Israel that will cut off the supply of Israeli arms to
Georgia and withdraw Israeli exports and advisors from that country in return for stopping the supply of sophisticated Russian air defense and missile defense systems to Iran and Syria. In return for allowing Russia to have a free hand in its sphere influence, the United States also wants Russia to stop supporting anti-American regimes in the Caribbean which is part of the US zone of influence in Latin America. Countries like Venezuela and Cuba and other anti-American regimes are receiving sophisticated Russian arms and have even agreed to have Russian military bases on their territories. The United States wishes to see a harsher Russian position toward North Korea which continues to carry out nuclear and missile tests and has an on-going strategic cooperation in the field of Ballistic missiles with Iran. All this in addition to a US demand for Russia to show better understanding of Obama’s plan to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, so that it may press its allies in the Arab region, especially Syria, not to jeopardize that plan. The United States also wants Russia to persuade Iran to stop the Uranium enrichment and open its nuclear program to inspection by he International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
As far as Israel is concerned, it is well prepared for a military strike against Iran if the talks between the 5+1 group and Iran fail to achieve true achievement from the point of view of America and also if the expected sanctions against Iran fail to force it to give up its uranium enrichment program. Therefore, Israel gave the Obama Administration just six months to resolve the problem of Iran’s nuclear file through negotiation and through sanctions, after which it is expected that Israel will go ahead with its plan for a military strike against Iran, in which case it will not need to have a green light from the United States. That is what Israel did in 1981 when it destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor "Osirak" without permission from the United States.
There are many indicators that Israel is determined to follow this line of action the most important of which is seen in its reliance on the IAEA reports and the US and France intelligence reports which have given Iran 1 to 3 years to complete the manufacturing of 1 to 2 nuclear bombs after its new P-2 centrifugals complete the enrichment of the uranium quantities needed for the manufacturing of nuclear heads for Iran’s Chehab and Sijjil missiles. Israel has also objected to the remarks dropped by Russian president Medvedev who said that (Israeli President Shimon Peres) told him Israel will not strike Iran. Israel disputed the statement and said “Moscow is not authorized to speak for Israel. The military option against Iran is still possible and all options are there”
While the Israeli Army Chief of Staff General Gabi Ashkenazi said that he did not expect a near war with Hizbollah citing what he called the strong deterrence achieved by his country in the 2006 war despite the expectation that Hizbollah could move along with Iran and Hamas to wage missile attacks against Israel in case of an armed conflict between Israel and Iran. On account of this General Amos Gilad, Security in –Charge at the Israeli Defense Ministry, warned Hamas that it will bring its own destruction if it tries to possess missiles with a range of more than 60 km. Israeli officials have also expressed concern that Syria may also join Iran in hitting Israel in light of information that Damascus has deployed scores of missile launchers in a reinforced underground tunnel system along its border with Israel. The information also said the missiles include 220mm Farrouj missiles with a range of 70km and other 302 mm missiles with a hitting range of up to 100 km. It means that a number of cities in northern Israel such as Tabariya and Kiryat Shmona fall within the range of these missiles, while the long range missile can hit Haifa, its industrial area and oil refineries in addition to the risk of the Negev area coming under missile attack which may affect the Dimona nuclear reactor and the project for making a new nuclear reactor in the region.
Meanwhile, on the Israeli side and in connection with the preparations for a war with Iran, in which the latter could use chemical a biological weapons of mass destruction in the form of war heads carried by Chehab and Sijjil missiles and besides the periodic exercises made by Israel to face those possibilities, a recent report by Reuters News Agency said that the uproar made for the recent exercises made by the Israeli Air Force and Naval Forces is intended to cover a project that is being carried out quietly and in deep secrecy in the depths of the West Jerusalem hills. The report said that the project dubbed "the Nation's Tunnel" by the media is being watched over by government guards and it is actually a network of underground tunnels created to shelter Israel's political leaders in the event of the breakout of such a war, especially after the count down has begun for a military strike against Iran.
So, when all is said and done, we can see than with a single American decision to abandon the deployment of the US missile shield in eastern Europe, our Arab region has slipped back into turmoil and a high tensioned expectation of what could happen to Iran and its allies in the eastern part of the Arab region including Syria, Hizbollah and Hamas and other allies in the Arab Gulf countries such as the Arab Gulf groups carrying the name of Hizbollah, and also in Yemen added to other religious extremist groups in the region. We know that America is using its options as a superpower and playing an interest game of give-and-take with Moscow, but there is also Israel who is playing an unpredictable game because the only motive behind its actions has always been the security factor. All this, apart from the internal situation of tension in Iran which seems to be suffering from a deeper crack that what we see on the surface and what has so far been said to describe it. This internal tension will naturally reflect on Iran's foreign policies. It will also have direct or indirect effects on the other parties involved in the nuclear stand off with Iran on the regional and international levels.
By: Major General Wisamuddin Mohammad.