Ever since April 2009, the world has been jolted by the outbreak of swine flu virus or A/H1N1. Analysts tiptoed on the causes of this disease. The possibilities ranged from a scientific error at the scientific tests laboratories or at the Armed Forces laboratories of some countries conducting biological war research. But as was the case in the previous spread of serious epidemics in the world, the discussions focused not on the causes but rather on efforts and measures to confront and control the disease lest it should turn into a worldwide epidemic, killing millions of people. As the true causes of the disease have not yet been ascertained, the door was flung wide open for claims and speculations that hinge on the conspiracy theory. Certain circles have started to level veiled accusations to pharmaceutical companies, claiming that the declaration of the disease at this particular junction served the interests of companies producing such flu drugs as Tami Flu used for treating bird flu, in order to reap huge profits to weather the financial crisis they suffered in 2008 and 2009. They claimed that the World Health Organization has exaggerated the seriousness of the disease to help the companies achieve this goal. The conspiracy theory even widened to accuse some people of leaking the killer virus from the Armed Forces laboratories of a certain country or that it was the result of laboratory errors from scientific tests that veered out of control.
Despite the apparent weakness of the explanations favoring the conspiracy theory, it is important to mention it to know how the world views such epidemics that threaten world stability and security. Also there is a need to stress the seriousness of such diseases and their possible scenarios in the near future. This is in addition to cautioning against the disease taking the form of worldwide epidemic similar to what happened in the 1960s. Also the virus may become a fertile material for armies to use it as biological weapon in wars and military conflicts. There is also the possibility of terrorist groups using it as a weapon to destabilize some parts of the world. Consequently, this article tries to shed light on the seriousness of this disease and the potential crises in its worst possible scenarios during the next few years, its relationship with the Armed Forces across the globe or its possible use by armies for military purposes or by terrorist groups as a devastating weapon.
First: Real Dimensions of Swine Flu Threat:
The World Health Organization has warned of the Swine Flu threat and the state of preparedness has been hiked to phase 5 on a 6-phase scale, but so far the disease has not reached the maximum threat caused by other viruses in human history. Also the threat did not materialize although the disease had all the trappings of becoming a worldwide epidemic after scientific evidences indicated that two Swine Flu viruses that are unable to be transmitted between humans have merged, producing a new type that could easily be transmitted among humans through the air.
Meanwhile, the numbers of deaths caused by the disease are still limited despite its widespread and the multiplication of victims in a record short time, compared to the numbers of deaths caused by other diseases. Figures indicate that the normal seasonal flu causes more than 30,000 deaths annually. Also massive flu outbreaks hit the world every 10 years causing a large number of human deaths: in 1968 at least one million were killed while in 1918 and 1919 Spanish flu killed one hundred million or more as the international organizations did not report the actual number of deaths.
Some scenarios indicate that in the case of a worldwide Swine Flu epidemic, the numbers of deaths could be some 62 million, 96% of them in the developing nations. The British government estimated that the total number of deaths in Britain will range between 55,000 to 750,000 depending on its spreading rates and weather it takes the form of an epidemic. The government also said that Britain’s economy may sustain losses ranging between 3 to 7 billion pounds due to workers failure to report to work. Also production will be reduced to about 7 billion pounds in a worst case scenario of the disease.
There is no doubt that worldwide human and economic losses will be quite heavy in case of a swine flu epidemic and such losses could not be accurately predicted. However, the world countries’ response to a Swine Flu epidemic could be likened to engaging the enemy in a direct face to face battle. Militarily, this means there is no successful military plan to escape the consequences. Hence, there is no successful plan to spare any country this menace in case of a worldwide Swine Flu epidemic. Health officials in various countries will be in a position similar to that of a besieged warrior who has lost all his weapons and supply lines and is still refusing to surrender to the enemy.
second : Flu co-relationship with Armed Forces worldwide:
The Armed Forces of any nations will, undoubtedly, have a strong presence in cases of health and natural calamities as success in controlling such calamities and epidemics is considered a real battle for these forces. Nations resort to the Armed Forces in such circumstances due to the magnitude of the job to be achieved, the scope of the works and the required arrangements for controlling such calamities and diseases. Another reason is that the Armed Forces, in most cases, has massive human potentials and huge equipment compared to what is available to the civil defense and internal security forces and the ministries concerned with health and social affairs. Therefore, in case of Swine Flu epidemic the Armed Forces will have a strong presence in all countries of the world to isolate and control infected zones and extend food and medical supplies. This is in addition to evacuation and burial of victims. This is exactly the same mission undertaken by the Armed Forces during the spread of the Spanish flu in 1918-1919.
A strange paradox is that the spread of flu whether Spanish or Swine Flu, has been linked to the Armed Forces: Reports show that the Spanish flu broke out for the first time at an army camp in Texas in 1918 and that epidemic was spread to Europe by US Armed Forces personnel who travelled to Europe. Therefore, the movement of soldiers among countries of the world contributed to the spread of the disease that has killed millions of people across the globe. The reports also indicate that the Swine Flu is not new to the U.S Armed Forces, adding that the disease appeared in 1976 afflicting 240 soldiers inside Fort Dix military base. One person died and the others were successfully treated.
In May, 2004 and in the early stages of the spread of the swine flu, the disease was reported for the first time in the Arabian Gulf region, in Kuwait, afflicting several American soldiers. This means that foreign troops’ movement around the world is a perfect and quick medium for transmitting the Swine Flu epidemic. Consequently, the countries hosting western troops and NATO bases have become more susceptible to receive such epidemics.
Third: miscellaneous Swine flu accusations:
It has been noticed that with regard to the spread of serious epidemics during the past few years that the world transcends uncovering the causes of the outbreak of the epidemic and its virus to focus mainly on confronting the disease and curtailing its spread. This is the same course taken by the world in the case of AIDS which was transmitted from monkeys in Africa to human, killing millions of people. The same thing applies to the bird flu, anthrax, SARS and lastly Swim Flu.
Regardless of our belief in the Islamic world that Swine Flu is the result of man’s wide-scale use of the animal as a food source paying no heed to its prohibition by all heavenly religions, and despite the fact that science has proved its seriousness and harmful effects on human health and due to the western world’s failure to produce convincing reasons for the outbreak of this disease, such behavior has left the door open for promoting the conspiracy theory. The latter claims that these diseases were intentionally spread, weather for a deliberate criminal goal or due to scientific, medical or military research tests that veered out of control. However, all the accusing fingers are leveled at the human race for the outbreak of such devastating epidemics. The diversity of these accusations is equally matched by diverse reasons explaining the Swine Flu outbreak as follows:
1. environmental causes:
Certain explanations say man’s destruction of the environment is to blame for many epidemics, such as Swine Flu. This is because man tried to preserve a certain food and consumption pattern to cope with the spiraling population increase. In this respect he used genetic engineering to increase plant and animal production. He also excessively used chemicals and fed herbivorous animals and birds with animal proteins to increase production and maximize profits. This resulted in the environmental imbalance that in turn caused the previously unknown diseases, such as cancer, mad cow, bird flu and swine flu.
A case in point is that the breakout of swine flu in Mexico was not a mere coincidence: the disease appeared in the beginning in Lagloria, Veracruz state, Mexico, home to the largest U.S pig farm in Mexico. It has the capacity to produce about one million heads annually. This type of farms is similar to what is available in the U.S. Hundreds of thousands of animals are confined to a narrow space denying them enough sun and fresh air. The commercial aim is to satisfy the Western need for this type of meat, albeit under conditions subjecting the animals to diseases.
This type of farms is notorious for their inhumane and merciless methods of artificial pasture. As such methods reduce the animals’ immunity; the company injects them with vaccines and pesticides. This is in addition to environmental challenges with regard to treating the manure of this huge number of slaughtered animals, estimated at 26 million tons annually. Moreover, the owners of these farms do not use environmental or hygienic methods to get rid of this manure, leaving some poisons and pesticides untreated. This in turn leaks many pollutants into underground water and the water system, adversely affecting the environment to contract diseases.
Reasons related to extremist humans practices:
Humans are also accused of extremist practices that turned dormant viral diseases from non-epidemic to epidemic diseases such as in the case of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). It remained dormant in the chimpanzee monkeys for long centuries without harming humans. However, it turned into a viral epidemic after humans had sex with the chimpanzees. Another example is the wide spread for of sex in which the cemen of more than one man accumulates inside the same woman, violating all heavenly laws and running at variance with the pattern on which Allah has made mankind.
3. Scientific and economic reasons:
Some circles accuse man of tampering with science: some writers indicate that Swine Flu is caused by new germs leaked from scientific laboratories of a certain country either by mistake or intentionally for political, security and economic purposes, adding that pharmaceutical companies are responsible for scaring the world to force countries to purchase large quantities of drugs to confront the disease, reaping enough profits to overcome the consequences of the international financial crisis.
4. Military and Security Reasons:
Certain explanations said that Swine Flu is military made. Media reports claimed that dangerous virus samples disappeared from a U.S army medical research center prior to the outbreak of the disease. The center conducts tests on such viruses as Ebola and Anthrax. Conversely other explanations say the virus was released to curtail the burgeoning world population, while other theories say the virus was released at this particular time to kill U.S president Barak Obama during his Mexico visit.
Fourth: Swine Flu impact on states’ national security:
It is well known that each country has specific dimensions for its comprehensive national security. In normal conditions, a military or economic threat is the most serious threat to national security. In most cases all countries strive to bolster their Armed Forces, supplying them with the most modern weapons and military equipment to protect their national security and repel any attempts to breach it. By the passage of time and due to international politics complications as well as spiraling political, economic, cultural and military conflicts, the scope of national security widened to include political, technological, cultural, water, medicine and food aspects. The Swine Flu and similar viruses added their shame to further widen the national security concept of all countries.
Under the Swine Flu epidemic the national security of most countries is threatened because the disease doesn’t recognize international borders or diplomatic means to cross these borders. Also the Armed Forces [could not be used to repel its attack. So the national security of any nation is neither linked to its geographical borders nor to its defense and military might. The national borders have expanded to include the world in its entirety. All civilian and military personnel are now called upon to confront this menace as it threatens their national security wherever they are. This means the epidemic has created an extraordinary state of national security. It could also safely be said that such epidemics meant the military capabilities are not solely confined to management of traditional battles but widened the concept to include the Armed Forces ability- as part of other state systems- to manage calamities and control the spread of such epidemics. The threat posed by Swine Flu spares no one worldwide, thus endangering the national security of all countries. No one is safe from this disease whether he eats pork or not, there are pigs in his country or not and whether he is armed or not.
Fifth: swine flu as biological weapon in the hands of terrorist groups and Armed Forces:
It is well known that biological war is an important part of total wars between professional Armed Forces worldwide. Armies of most countries are, undoubtedly preoccupied with the development of weapons used in such wars, resorting to viral diseases that may take the form of epidemics scaring and killing not only members of enemy forces but also their people. This will force enemy states to turn their attention to such epidemics suffering materially and militarily and resulting either in their surrender of defeat. The Armed Forces of many countries did not hesitate to use biological weapons in their wars, including the Israeli forces which used such weapons in their wars against the Egyptian forces in Sinai.
Swine flu is widely predicted to be used in biological wars after preparation of their viruses in military laboratories. This means that the Armed Forces of various countries should be prepared and trained to confront the possibility of being subjected to such devastating viruses in case they are engaged in any wars.
Indications that such possibility may happen in the Arab-Israeli conflict were evident in 2009 when Palestinian citizens near the barrier wall complained that Israeli military patrol used herds of pigs to scare them. These herds were deliberately set loose under the protection of Israeli Armed Forces in farms owned by Palestinian villagers and close to their houses to force the inhabitants to leave these villages, giving the Israelis the freedom to damage Palestinian farms. At the same time, the Israeli Armed Forces prohibit the entry of arms and pesticides that could be used by villagers to turn away these animals.
This indicates that the Israeli forces have taken the first steps to use Swine Flu as a weapon to terrorize the Palestinians. Israel will definitely conduct research in its military laboratories on the virus with a view to spreading disease among the Palestinians after inoculating its own citizens and soldiers.
It is also possible that terrorist groups could use the disease to scare people and destabilize many parts of the world, particularly if they obtain the virus from the laboratories that are conducting research on it. Such groups recently tried to send anthrax powder in mail parcels or place it in air conditioners at strategic buildings in Britain and the U.S.
However the fact that the Swine Flu disease has not taken epidemic dimensions and the world’s success in controlling its spread does not mean that the danger is over. This is because the disease has been added to killer viruses that could be used as a biological weapon by the Armed Forces or terrorist groups in any country.
In the light of the above analysis, preparations should begin immediately at the civil, military and security levels and laboratories should operate at full capacity to produce and accumulate medicines and materials to control viruses in particular. Also, efforts should be made to train the military and security forces on how to handle the spread of the epidemic as the viruses are expected to attack the world more fiercely in the upcoming years through their recurrent cycles. Another reason is the increased possibility of its use as a devastating biological weapon in armed conflicts or terrorist operations. We have to follow in this respect the military wisdom that:” training and preparedness during peace save lives during war”.
by Dr. Mughawri Shalabi Ali