Strategic equilibriums among states could not be measured by military balance alone after the development of weaponry and military ware. Exceeding the battle field, it has extended to inflict destruction on vital strategic targets in the strategic depth of states, including residential areas, civil and military factories providing the armed forces with weapons, fighting equipment, ammunitions, spare parts, raw materials and the necessary complementary industries. This also includes, dams, power plants and energy resources, stores, airports, seaports, transportation roads and major intersections and everything that provides the people and their armed forces with necessary requirements to continue the warfare, accomplish the national goals and preserve the vital interests of the people and the state. In fact the bombers, fighter planes and ballistic missiles armed with mass destruction ammunition now reach beyond this depth to destroy allies or states supporting the enemy. Even the people have now become the target of terrorist organizations supported by the enemy states which play on ethnic and ideological disputes to ignite internal conflicts and disorders that confuse the state's leadership and internal security organs, thus exposing the state to hostilities from outside and inside.

      Therefore, the state's total geographical, human, military, economic, social and moral forces have all been included in the calculations of comprehensive power of the state, together with the possibility of comparing it with the state's total power during hostilities and deriving the expected results if the state enters an armed struggle or total war against its enemies, getting ready for the conflict which may affect the state's capabilities both individually and totally, thus affecting the final results of the conflict.

      This change in calculations of strategic balances on the basis of the state's total power is not a present or recent one, but a change that dates back to about five centuries ago when the philosophers and innovators of strategy discovered the importance of including all the total powers of the state in the calculations of its capabilities to wage armed conflicts. This has been known as "the state's national total power". Foremost among those philosophers was the Italian philosopher Nicola Machiavelli in 1521 in his book "The Art of War" , in which he had adopted the concept of "Nation in Arms" basing his concept on the fact that the age of war games by kings and princes in the leadership of professional armies, without consideration of the peoples or human masses had become something of the past. The idea of arming the nation or people was the source of the "total war" concept which become the dominant concept in the 20th century in view of the huge progress in the technologies of conventional and mass destruction arms (nuclear, chemical and biological) together with carpet bombs and the various means of their delivery, including aeroplanes, ballistic missiles, submarines, cruise missiles and even artillery and rocket launchers. These weapons have already spread in Middle Eastern countries and the surrounding states of Central and Southern Asia, Central and Southern Africa in addition to the Balkans. It is quite possible that these arms may be acquired by terrorist organizations. As such, the concept of total war with its conventional and ultra-conventional dimensions is the field within which we should discuss the dimensions of strategic balances between Arab countries, Israel and Iran after Israel has become an acknowledged nuclear power whereas Iran is continuing its challenge of the world community to become a nuclear and missile owning power in the region, demanding a role in formulating the regional security system, particularly in the Gulf Region. It has stretched its influence in most Middle Eastern countries, Southern and Central Asia, as well as Africa which are striving for Iranian interests and serving Iranian objectives. Both Israel and Iran are posing a dangerous threat to Arab security in its territorial and regional dimensions. Machiavelli had considered the human masses in the state as the influential factor in wars and armed conflict since they constituted the background from which the fighters, scientists and thinkers…etc. emerged. He was supported in his view by other philosophers such as Thomas Hobbs, three hundred years ago, Hans Morgenthan and Fredric Sochuman. They considered that war has become total and that the state in its political relations, in calculation of its regional and international weight in the balances of foreign policy as well as in battle fields, only depended on its total power which represented its capability to end any sort of crises-including armed conflicts- in its favor, by safeguarding its national objectives and targets and overcoming any obstacles or threats that hindered this goal.

      Thinkers and scientists have all agreed that the yardstick to evaluate the national- or total power- and calculate strategic balances, is the political unit or the state, and that the state's power which should be placed with the balances of strategic measurements was not an absolute power but rather a power that was comparable to that of other states regionally or internationally if it was a superpower, particularly those conflicting with its national interests.

      As such, the state's power has become a comprehensive compound including within its components the major elements on which the state is based, especially the state's geography and its geo-political, human and economic power, including its natural resources, as well as its industrial, agricultural and political powers .This is in addition to its internal and external influence and its military power with its various conventional and ultra-conventional branches. Each of these components has its influence on the total power of the state. The views of philosophers and researchers have generally agreed upon the components of total power, but have differed a lot regarding the effect of these components on the power of the national state and the proportion of effect of each component on the total power of the state.

      Accordingly, gathering the sources of the state's power, known by some philosophers as the "Power Base", is the foundation on which the state bases its efforts to confront security threats, safeguards its interests in the face of those threats and realizes its national targets and objectives. The collection, development and improvement of the performance of each component of the total power, constitutes the main concern for the state's political leadership to make maximum use and utilization of the best elements of its total power and improve the performance of its weak elements.

1.State's geography:

      This includes the state's location in terms of latitudes and longitudes and regarding land and seas as well as seaports or harbors, the nature of its geographic connection with neighboring countries, the state's size, area, shape, length of its borders, and the topography of its territories: desert, agricultural, mountainous, forests…etc. This also includes rivers, lakes and sources of fresh ground and underground water. If we look at Arab states, we find that they are located between Somalia  on the Equator , and the Iraqi and Syrian borders with Turkey on latitude 380 North, and between the Mauritanian coasts on latitude Zero on the Atlantic and latitude 600  East where we find the coasts of Oman on the Arabian Sea.

      The Arab states generally constitute about one fourth of the world with a total area exceeding half a million square miles (or one million, three hundred square kilometers) there are 4 Arab states among 17 countries but they are dominated by arid desert lands, a fact that affects the numbers, density and distribution of its population, with less than 15 million people. Some total national power thinkers consider that these states don't have a concrete power due to the low density of their population, in addition to the wide territories, which results in problems regarding control and defense.

      All Arab countries have sea coasts that helps in communication with the outside world, maximizing their geographical significance, (particularly those where seas and oceans meet e.g. Egypt) such as the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean. (at the same time, weakness of the Arabs was the reason behind the influence of some neighboring countries and their occupation of Arab territories and Islands., such as Israel's control of Naqab to have access to the Red Sea from Eilat, and Iran's occupation of the three isles controlling the Hurmuz Bay (Abu Mussa, the Greater Tonb and the Lesser Tonb Isles) from the U.A.E. One of the reasons behind Iraq's aggression against Kuwait in August 1990 was Iraq's wish to have access to the Arabian Gulf and occupy the Bubian, Failakah and Warbah isles from Kuwait. The state's power is affected by its area and size. Small states, no matter how modernized and developed they may be, are curtailed by their limited areas. At the same time, the large area alone does not necessarily mean the state will reach the rank of major states or superpowers, since most Arab states are medium -sized states but are sparsely populated. States posing threats to Arab countries, mainly Israel and Iran, have reached their current areas through acquisition of parts of the Arab lands. According to the partition project, Israel would have acquired an area of 14,249 sq. km, i.e. 55% of the best Palestinian territories which cover most of the coastal plain from Haifa to Ashdod, the rich agricultural region of eastern Hebron around Lake Tibria and most of the Negev desert from Bir Sheba to the southern -most Palestinian territories. But continuous Arab-Israeli conflicts have increased the area of Israel to 28177 sq.km, i.e. an increased by 198% in comparison with the partition project. This means that Israel's area has almost doubled. This is due to its adoption of the expansionist theory of acquisition of territories by force to establish the greater Israel state for which the Zionist leader Jabotnisky had called in 1929 to include territories North and South of the Jordan River thus becoming a regional superpower surrounded by some Arab mini- states which are ethnically and ideologically divided, in what would be known as the "Hebrew commonwealth". In this regard, Israel has adopted the principles of German philosopher Fredric Ratzel about state's growth laws. It also applied most of the ideas of German thinker and politician general Karl Houshofer, combining all these laws with the theory of philosopher Jean Jacques Rousseau, as follows:

Ratzel's principles: Which state that the state is a living creature that is born, gets bigger and continues to develop. Growth means migration to surrounding territories so that the state would expand slowly adding to its area parts after parts that could be easily swallowed. The political borders of the state are the packing frame of the state and grow with the development of the state. Hartzel's principles also call for the state's attention to the quality of territories it adds to its area. These should either be coastal territories overlooking active international seas, or fertile plains or territories rich in mineral resources. This has been applied by Israel through its occupation of the West Bank and the Golan Heights where we find fertile plains and water resources.
The Haushofer ideas calling on small states to adopt aggressive strategies in dealing with their neighbors so as to expand at their expense, stating that defensive strategies only suited states with large areas, since they can have a strategic depth for defense and exhaustion of attacking forces and ample time and place for reorganization and launching of decisive counter attacks or strikes, as the Soviet Union had done against the German offensive during the Second World War. The same applies to Egypt when Israel occupied the Sinai Desert in 1967 and was restored by Egypt following the October war of 1973. His ideas also warn against fighting in more than one front at the same time to avoid scattering military efforts, and call for the adoption of a disintegration strategy against large-sized countries. This is the strategy adopted by Israel to disintegrate Sudan to separate its south from the north and encouraged the separation of Darfur region. Again, in Iraq by supporting the Kurds pushing them towards separation, and the attempts to disintegrate Lebanon into cantons after dividing Palestine into the Hamas mini-state in Gaza and the Fath mini-state in the West Bank. Likewise, Iran is attempting to apply the same disintegration theory by separating the Iraqi Shiite south from its north and by its previous occupation of the Arabistan region together with Al-Baloush region in the east, the Azerbaijanis in the north and the Kurds in the west. It is also attempting to extend its control over the Shatt-al-Arab region and to cut-off oil-rich southern Iraq and the Shiite sacred places, while demanding the territories of Bahrain and calling for a Shiite empire comprising the areas resided by Shiites in the Gulf, Southern and Central Asia extending to Syria and Lebanon.
   Koshover's ideas also call for the military occupation of enemy territories to be total occupation so as to completely eradicate resistance. It also for an iron-fist policy in the occupied territories, and this is the same policy followed by Israel in all Arab territories it occupied in the West Bank, Gaza and south Lebanon –till 2000- Jerusalem and the Golan Height.

The theory of jean Jaques Rouseau links between the size and population of the state and encourages Israel to invade and annex Arab territories by force and appeals to world Jews to immigrate to Israel through adoption of the settlement policy which throws the Arabs out of their lands. This was the policy adopted by Netanyahu in the end when he called for acceptance of the Jewish nature of the Israeli state as a prelude for the deportation of its Arab residents numbering more than one and a half Arabs inside the territories of Israel who have political rights and are represented by (11) members in the Knesset. They are demanding economic and social rights which cannot be neglected.

2. Population or human power:

      The population or human power is the most important element upon which the state's total power is based. But the population increase does not mean an increase in the state's power in all circumstances since this increase in population must be coupled with an increase in the General National Product of the state, together with a rise in the per capita share in the General National Product (GNP per capita). At the same time, the increase in GNP and GNP per capita in the presence of a clear weakness in the state's human power also constitutes some sort of weakness in the state, since the state will lack the ample human power to make use of its resources and build its armed forces. This is in addition to the quality of human power in view of the fact that the big size of human power which is not accompanied with all types of growth including education, health, culture and national awareness, allegiance, affiliation, harmony, ethnic and ideological conformity could harm the state more than canons. Furthermore, the effect of education in the state to manipulate its human capabilities in production and defense…etc. This is due to the fact that a high proportion of unemployment among the population means the emergence of dangerous social and political within the state which may be exploited by foreign enemies and western countries in particular. Most of these states are situated in the region between latitudes 200 and 400 north which is the area of dense populations in the world, resided by 50% of the world population. It includes 14 Arab states which are generally the most densely populated Arab countries: Egypt, Syria, Libya, Morocco, Algeria, the U.A.E, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, half Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. The remaining 8 Arab countries, are located within the Equatorial and tropical region which is sparsely populated. Lying between the equator and latitude 200 north, this region contains 10% of the world's population. The 8 countries include Somalia, Djibouti, Sudan, Yemen, Oman and about half the area of Saudi Arabia and Mauritania. Generally Arab countries are among the medium populated countries (25-200) residents per one square mile. At the same time, the majority of the population is concentrated in a limited area of the state. These are considered high density areas, whereas the remaining area of the desert state is a low density populated area. Strategically, this is called a bad distribution of the population negatively affecting the defense aspect.

      Keenness of the human power of the state or the nation on the principle of its existence is the essence of the population power of the state or nation. The principle of the nation's existence hinges on the availability of the centripetal forces for the state's existence vanishing when the state's centrifugal forces appear. This depends on the ethnic, sectarian or ideological components of the state's population. The more there are ethnic, religious and ideological divisions together with linguistic variations, the less there will be social harmony while loyalty and allegiance to the state will be weakened. Each religious, racial or ideological sect will endeavor to get linked to its mother group or race outside the state. This is what we clearly see in the attempts of the Polisario Berbers to separate from Arab Maghreb states, the Kurds of Iraq, Iran and Turkey…etc. This leads to the disintegration and collapse of the state. As for the Egyptian nation, it has the principle of existence where the race has reached the stage of unity, the Arabic language is completely dominant and Islam is the religion of the absolute majority. On the contrary, in Lebanon, the large number of sectarian groups has resulted in the difficulty of agreement on the president of the state for two years (2006-2008). It was also difficult to form a cabinet although there is a majority constitutionally entitled to form the cabinet.

      Meanwhile, in Israel, despite the fact that it is a gathering of a Diaspora of Jews from all countries of the world, racial segregation is dominant between the Western (Ashkenazim) and Eastern (Sephardim) Jews. This is in addition to the segregation between Jews in general and the Israeli Arabs, between religious and non-religious Jews, between the (Sabra) Jews (born inside Israel) and immigrant Jews. There is also segregation between urban Jews and the Jews of colonies and settlements (Kibutz).

      The abstention of Jews from marriage and their adoption of contraceptives –despite the state's encouragement of births among Jews and mixed marriages- have prompted some rabbis to reject the Jewish origin of those born by non-Jewish mothers even if the father is a Jew. Meanwhile, on the contrary, we find an increased birthrate among Arab residents, about 4.5%, which is the highest in the world. This has led to the emergence of a demographic threat resulting from the continuing increase of Arab residents. Thus, it is expected that the proportion of Arabs to Jews in Israel will reach 50% by 2025, threatening the principle on which Israel has been established as a "pure Jewish state". Iran is also faced by the same problem regarding the border provinces on its fringes dominated by non-Persian nationalities, such as Kurds in the west, Azeris in the north, Boloshis in the east and Arabs in the South, leading to several riots threatening Iran's internal security.

3.the State's Political Power:

      The structure of every state contains latent capabilities which could be exploited by the people or the regime ruling it and representing its executive tool, if there is harmony and conformity between the people and the ruling regime. But, if there is disparity and confrontation between the people and its ruling regime, there will be divergence and the people's capabilities will remain stagnant till a suitable climate allows their release. This is quite clear in the differences between states ruled by democratic regimes that release the creative energies of the people, because it is the people who contribute to existence of such regimes and their ascent to power, and states ruled by throttling dictatorial or theocratic (religious) regimes that suppress the capabilities of the people and prevent their eruption fearing for its existence. This was reflected in the revolutions of East European countries during the nineties when the peoples saved themselves from the communist regimes that had ruled them.

      The political power of the state basically depends on human power which constitutes its vital block. This power is affected by several factors, including:

The extent of the people's acceptance of the regime ruling them, freedom of speech. Multi-party system, the extent of democracy enjoyed by the people in their political life and their ability to choose their political leaders without limitations.

The people's faith in the cause of their country and the existence of a national project around which the popular forces group and join hands behind their political leadership and the effect of this faith on the morale of the people. This is what is known as the "national personality".

Social solidarity among the groups, sectors, ideologies and different political parties and the absence of ethnic or religious differences or internal disputes that endanger the internal structure of the state.

The national structure and the ability of the ruling system to solve the problems of minorities in the state's society and eradication of separatist or independence tendencies of these minorities.

The ruling system's ability to impose the force of law and its respect by all and eradication of all sorts of corruption, freedom of judiciary which creates the people's trust of the system ruling it.

The ruling regimes ability to take decisive decisions, particularly at times of crises and difficult circumstances particularly with regard to situations concerning war and peace issues, and its ability to impose its decisions and implement them whether inside or outside the state.

The extent of the ruling regime's respect or support by neighboring powers in the regional environment and the international arena, particularly if its neighbors are good.

      The Arab world has the requirements of political power if it can correctly utilize its elements, since the vital block of the Arab world comprises an area of more than 13 million km in the middle of the old world and contains the Islamic holy places towards which the hearts of world Muslims earnestly turn. It controls the most important water ways in the world: the Suez Canal, the Bab Al-Mandeb strait, the Tiran strait, the Hormuz strait and the Gibraltar strait. (It also comprises one Arab Nation consisting of more than 200 million people. Its population nears that of a world power and most of its population embrace Islam and speak the Arabic language. These characteristics are not only enjoyed by certain superpowers which are multi-ethnic, embrace several religions and speak several languages. The Arab World can enjoy economic integration that can only be enjoyed by major or superpowers, whether agricultural, industrial or mineral resources, and particularly petroleum of which the Arab land has the major  part of world stocks and which is considered the backbone of energy resources and electrical power and various industries. The factors of Arab power and the meeting point among its political units, the Arab states, was the most powerful motive for the world's major and superpowers which are at loggerheads with it fearing its total powers if it uses them properly. This is because these enemy powers intended to create at the heart of the Arab world in Palestine, the state of Israel to separate its east from its west and to guarantee that this alien state would survive by supporting it politically militarily and economically, despite its extraordinary situation and the treaties established by Israel with powers that pose a threat to the Arab world from within, for ethnic and sectarian reasons.

4.the Economic Power of the State:

      The economic power is among the most important elements of the state's power and the gross national product (GNP) of the state is a clear indication of the state's economic power. The national per capita income also offers an indicator of the extent of the state's advancement and the welfare of its people, and the external trade balances add more indicators showing the state's power in the international domain. The state's economic power depends on its power in the various fields of production including the energy and mining resources, industry, agriculture and other productive services in addition to social services. These fields include:

a-Natural resources:

      These are resources under the ground or in the depth of internal lakes and seas, other seas and oceans, resources on the ground surface or in the atmosphere. In building its industries including military industries, the state depends on it natural resources in the first place, and on industry which constitutes a cornerstone of the strength or weakness of the economy. Natural resources include:

* Energy resources: these generate power that operates industries, agriculture, the various means of transportation, military ware and weapons, on the ground, in the sea and air. Also most of production services depend on energy, such as the generation of electricity, the irrigation and drainage networks. This is in addition to other non-productive services which are very vital for life such as the heating and health services. A state that imports the necessary driving powers carries in its body a factor of weakness for its total power. The most important energy resources are:
*Coal: Arab countries and other Middle Eastern countries –except for turkey- don't have significant coal resources. But it is expected that Egypt would join the group of coal producing states when the mines of Jabal Al-Magharah start production, which will be limited in comparison with big coal producers such as Russia, China, the United States, Britain, Poland, south Africa, India and Western Germany.

*Petroleum: the oil production of Arab states, put together, ranks first before Russia and the United States, but they are by far low consuming countries compared to those states. The kingdom of Saudi Arabia occupies the top position in oil production (14 million barrels per day). The Arab states also have about 60% of the world's oil resrves. Accordingly oil is considered a major source of economic power and, as such, political power for oil producing countries at the regional and international level. At the same time, oil makes these countries a target for the greed of other states in the regional and international domains which intend to control oil, particularly the companies working in the exploration, extraction, transportation and refining of oil which are foreign companies affiliated to world superpowers particularly the United States, Britain, France and China. They can exert pressure on oil producing countries through discovering or refraining from the discovery of its oil resources. Also these companies may control the rehabilitation and maintenance of oil fields and refining installations as well as production rates and, of course, its international prices, by introducing non-Arab countries, such as Russia –producing 10 million barrels per day- which is not a member of (OPEC) in the oil market and is, therefore, free to set the prices of its oil and quantities of its oil production.

*Electricity: electricity is a vital source of energy, especially for countries that do not have their required natural energy resources such as coal and petroleum and depend on electricity generation on natural resources like waterfalls, such as those in Ethiopia, dams and canals e.g. the High Dam in Egypt, oil gas operate plants…etc.

*Nuclear energy: a large number of states are intending to generate electricity by using nuclear energy through the nuclear fission or nuclear fusion reactors. There is a number of nuclear plants with low capacities in a number of Arab states –including Egypt, Syria- but after Israel's expansion in the uses of nuclear energy, through its Daimona, the Nahal Soreek plants, for both peaceful and military services, which had enabled it to posses more than 200 nuclear weapons with multiple capacities. Also there is the powerful entry of Iran in the nuclear field for the same peaceful and military purposes to declare itself a nuclear power –after all these developments most Arab states have tended to activate their plans to build nuclear reactors.

Other Energy sources: such as solar energy and wind energy are still in the development stage.

      Energy resources such as oilfields and installations, coal mines, oil refineries and export installations, dams, energy generation plants, fuel stores are among the vital strategic targets exposed to hostile: acts upon the eruption of armed conflicts.

*Minerals: A state's power is also calculated by its dependence on its domestic resources such as vital minerals to meet its industrial requirements. There are precious minerals of great importance in the field of heavy industries which are related to military industries. These include the iron ore, raw manganese and chromium – which are part of the steel industry- raw copper which is among the most important minerals used in heavy and conversion industries, raw cobalt, which is used in electrical electronic, chemical and space  industries, such as missiles- satellites and space missile launchers,….etc. together with the raw platinum and uranium group which is the basis of nuclear industries and power .The Arab countries are poor in the production of minerals, may be except for EGYPT and Algeria which produce iron ore used in steel industry.

*Agriculture and Primary Materials: The state's production of its requirements of foodstuffs- especially cereals- and their achievement of self-sufficiency in this regard is among the most significant requirements  of National Security of the state relieving it from being subjected to foreign pressures if it depends on importation of its requirements from cereals –especially wheat- from abroad, particularly during wars and crises and the probability that navigation sea lines may be the target of military operations by enemy warships and submarines.  Therefore, the state's achievement of self sufficiency in cereals, particularly wheat, is a clear evidence of the state's power, and the contrary is correct; since insufficient agricultural production to meet the food requirements of the people is considered a sign of weakness, especially at the times of wars .For this reason, the state's plans for redemption and plantation of agricultural lands with the basic food crops, such as wheat, corn and rice, and the extent of its sufficiency to meet the people's requirements constitute the most accurate measurements for the state's agricultural power. This is linked to the provision of water resources, financing, human power and the necessary lands for agricultural production. Furthermore, the exportation of excess agricultural production increases the state's political and economic power at the international level.

b- Industry:

      The total power of the state and its economic power depend to a large extent on the degree of its industrial development. To measure the degree of the state's industrial power, philosophers of the total power have followed diverse ways:

         There is Chairman who depended on a census of workers in the industrial field, not the whole industrial sector, but heavy and conversion industries.

   As for Klain, he has linked the power of industry to the size and value of industrial production. Meanwhile, Brunivaky innovated a measurement of the power of the industrial state by measuring it’s industry's energy consumption. The state's increased energy consumption is an evidence of the state's advancement and vice-versa.

      The significance of the state's economic power is generally apparent in that it plays an important role in building and development of the armed forces to safeguard the state's national security and realize its national and strategic goals and objectives.

5.the State's Military Power:

      The view of philosophers and researchers in the state's total powers and strategic balances on measuring military balance separately or within the framework of the strategic balance of total powers. This is done using several measurement styles, each having its merits and deficiencies. These include:

A- Measuring the size of military manpower in the Armed Forces whether under arms or after mobilization of the reserves.

B-Measuring the Balance depending on the numbers major weaponry and military hardware, whether on the ground (tanks, armored vehicles and artillery, in the sea:  surface warships and submarines, or in the air: fighter planes or armored gunships.

C-Measuring the Balance by comparing Military Expenditure; amounts spent by the state from its national income, in addition to foreign military aid which directly affects the size of military expenditure. There are some centers of strategic studies and Research- such as the Jafle centre for strategic studies, affiliated to the Tel Aviv university in Israel –which deals with the second way for measuring the military strategic balance through comparison of the major weaponry and military hardware, by dividing these weapons into several categories as follows:

(A) First Echelon Weapons Systems: these include ground weaponry such as major tanks, armored vehicles artillery, air defense weapons. From sea weapons there are warships and submarines, whereas the air weapons include fighter planes.

(B) Force Multiplier Weapons Systems: Including all sorts of weapons and military ware which have an effect on the military balance. On the ground these include anti-tank weapons, particularly Direct Anti-tank rockets due to their effectiveness in limiting the shock –effects on tanks during the attack. The types of ammunition which affect the role of direct confrontation weapons should be used such as perfect smart ammunitions which are laser-directed or directed by heat or satellites. Also introduced are equipment that give more weight to the weaponry in terms of qualitative balance and more effect on quantitative balance, such as the advance fire detection systems and equipment for estimation of distance by laser in addition to navigation and direction systems   through satellite (GPS). Marine weapons used for support include radar systems, air defense rockets in warships and the speed range and armored of these ships, particularly the surface -to -surface missiles. The air weapons include the command, control and early warning planes such as AWAX (E2C) planes to which the intelligence and computer were added under the abbreviations (C-4E).

(D) The Distinguished capability or ( stand-off): Armaments include ballistic missiles, both medium and long range missiles launched from static or mobile launchers. These reach the strategic depth of enemy states, and can be launched from the ground; the air or sea and most of them are directed by satellites, by laser, through television or by informed rays or any other means of direction.
       When comparing the weaponry and military ware, this should not be confined to the quantitative level, but also the qualitative difference between weapons and military equipment must be taken into consideration and how new they are. Also the massive fires launched by field groups, armored regiments, mechanical units, the infantry, the extent of its swift movements and air fire support.

6\ The Technological power:

      This power is of great significance for the development and capabilities of the state in all fields, especially the military and economic domains following the wide and quick steps made by the developed countries in (P.T.O) achieving technological advancement and mastering its tools which led it to the invasion of space and defeating the problems facing it in this regard.

      Thus, technology became a means of the state's political power in its attempt to impose its will on the world community, even on developing countries such as North Korea and Iran. Technological advancement depends on what the state achieves in the advancement in science in the fields of studies for its citizens at schools, universities, and specialized institutes. This is also achieved through the establishment of centers for studies and research and technological development, by encouraging researchers to innovate, and providing laboratories with modern technological equipments that help researchers to develop their studies, in addition to sending scholarships abroad to developed countries exchanging technological information therewith. The benefit of technological advancement is not only confined to the military or nuclear side, but also has positive benefits on agricultural and industrial development in addition to transportation, health and education services.   

      In a nutshell, the pivot for measurement of the national total power and the measurements or calculations of strategic balances in the political unit, or the state, which must focus on several factors as follows:

(A) The First Factor is the piece of land or territory defined by specific political borders which is internationally recognized as it is impossible that a state could be established for a long period without having a plot of territory on which it practices its sovereignty. This sovereignty would then extend to territorial waters which extend to a specific declared distance, and also the atmosphere above the territory and water. This excludes the times of war when a state, which would, in terms, be compelled to leave its territories and people and seek refuge in another sister state so as to practice its legal rights in liberating its territories.

(B) The Second Factor is a people that permanently lives on this territory and are bound to it and to each other in a framework of joint interests and ethnic, religious and linguistic relations.

(C) The Third Factor is the political organization through which the state practices its job inside and outside its political borders.
      It is an institution that represents the higher authority and a number of other assisting institutions governing all the people, and draws up the state's domestic and forcing policy and utilize the country's resources to realize the well-being and welfare of the people and safeguard them against foreign and domestics threats.

(D) The Fourth Factor, which is the essence of the state, is its independence and freedom of its will and political decision as well as the rule of the people by the people and the government's total sovereignty on all its boarders; it is noteworthy that some states have subjugated or allied themselves with great or superpowers and were deprived of the essence of independence, because they derived their foreign and sometimes even domestics policies from abroad. For example, the countries of Eastern Europe following their liberation from the Nazi occupation by the forces of the Soviet Union at the end of the second World War fell in the claws of tyranny of the Soviet government which imposed on                        
      Diplomatic, economic, military, social, ideological, information and technological elements in addition to the realization of self-sufficiency- as far as possible in- in the fields of food and weaponry to free itself from any  foreign pressures.

Strategic Balance Calculations in the framework of the state's Total power:

      In view of the fact that the state's power has become a comprehensive structure comprising the basic elements on which the state is based: humanitarian, geographical, economic and military…etc. And since , the military power alone is not decisive in determining the results of wars and armed conflicts after domestic  fronts – where the strategic depth of the state , comprising residential blocks and vital strategic targets are found –have become an extension of the front lines of the battle field where the armies deal with each other. In fact, the rear fronts have now become the first targets for the enemy's long range weapons, fighter bombers, and mass –destruction ballistic missiles, in view of the huge moral effects they , inflict on the state's decision makers , in a way that may lead to the collapse of the political will of the state upon the start of military operations. Therefore, it has become a must that the state should measure its total powers in the aforementioned  manner and compare the results with the state's total power and , accordingly –as stated before- the state's national power is not absolute but, rather, measurable in comparison with the power of other states .

           Although scientist and philosophers have agreed on the components of building the state's power, they are at variance regarding the ways of measuring this power and computing the components of the state's total power as regards the weight of each of its elements in comparison with the weights the other elements in terms of importance in achieving the state's security, stability, growth and repulsion of hostilities and threats against same. Therefore, there are various views adopted by the philosophers in this concern. Among the most famous philosophers and scientists who dealt with the matter there are F.C. German, Wilhelm Fuchs, Richard Muir and Ray S.Cline.

Norms and methods used to measure the state's total power may be classified into two types:

1 . The First Type: includes total or abbreviated norms which depend on measuring the state's power according to one or more than one major factor which the philosopher deems the major measuring factor. These methods are:

The method of German philosopher  Fuchs who depended on two factors in measuring the state's power , one is the major factor , which is state's Gross National Products(GNP), while the other is less important, which is the size of the state's human power.

In this regard, he reached following equation:

The state's power = the size of GNP × the cubic root of the human power

And = p the state's production power – production

And = B the state's human power – people

      Fucks apply his method to calculate the state power of some major or super power in the world according to what they had been after World War 2 , and what they became at the time he prepared his reference on the total power in 1963. He sought help from the U.N. statistics, and then he calculated the power of that state in accordance with its growth rates in the future in 1990 and 2010 without any change in these rates. If the expectation of Fucks are actually compared with the current situation, we will find that some major power have witnessed a major change in their power, in comparison with the rest of the state's such as China and Japan.

      We also notice that the Fuchs method has magnified the effect of the state's National Product, by including it in the equation using its full value in millions of Dollars, for example ………..In this, he depended on the fact that the State's National Product is real criteria the power of this state, this was considered by Fuchs as the second component of this equation, but ranks second if measured by the state's production power. Therefore, Fuchs has scaled down the effect of the human power coefficient, by finding the cubic root of human power.

The Richard Muir Method: Muir discussed the national power through a comprehensive study of political geography in his book where he dealt with this issue.

   He referred to the wider controversy among scientists and philosophers studying the matter to reach a specific, comprehendible and clear definition of the national power.

Muir then stated the definition or joint concept adopted by most of them.

   He described the state's national power as the "State's Motive Force " within the world system, in view of its reflections and clear effects on the course of events within and outside the state, its impact on making major decision at the national level on the political, military, and economic …etc. This is in addition to its effect on the state's behavior and leadership. Muir divided the national power of the state in its aforementioned components, but from his point of view through his focusing on the quality and range of development of each element of the total power, not on their size or number, as follows:

1-Considering the Morphological Power: this is the power emanating from the state's size, shape, location, and topographical features.

2-  Demographical power: this does not only refer to the numerical power of the people but also means other social measurements such as skills of the human power, the health condition, the age configuration, morale, national spirit, national loyalty and allegiance.

3-  Economic Power: comprises the state's economic resources, the size of its domestic and foreign trade, the extent of its technological development, the state's ability to achieve self-sufficiency in meeting its basic requirements, especially food and weaponry without dependence on foreign markets.

4- The State's Organization Power: means in his view the style of the executive authority in administering the state and the extent of strong relations between the Higher Administrative Level and the people in general. This is in addition to the extent of the state's domestic stability, the strength of its foreign relations with neighboring states at the regional level and with major states and superpowers at the international level and, accordingly, its influence in the two domains.

5-  Military Power: He stated that it does not only mean the numbers of major military weapons on the ground, sea and air or the mass destructive weapons and the means of carrying them, but also the quality of each weapon and the human power under arms, the level of their training and fighting preparedness, together with the system of mobilization of the reserves, their training and fighting efficiency in comparison with the standing forces, the duration of their mobilization to get ready for fighting, the method of deployment of the Armed Forces in the operation theatre and the effectiveness of the state's military strategy in addition to the advancement of its fighting methods and expertise.

6- Power from External Relations: This means the strength of the state's foreign relations and its influence in the regional and international domains and the cards it owns to insure this influence in order to achieve its national interests abroad, and what regional and international alliances it can achieve, together with its international position and respect.

       Muir built his method – affected by his academic affiliation as a professor of geography- on the basis of a study to find the relationship between the state's size, population, and power.

   He considered that many measurement elements were approximate and that reaching a real figure that reflected each element was almost impossible.

   Therefore, he considered that the strongest indication of the state's power is its National Income. He found this relationship between the state's National Income and its area, the relationship between the state's National Income and the number of its population. Then he found a relationship between the state's area and its populations, i.e., he introduced another factor in addition to the method of Fuchs: the factor of the state's area, linking all this to the number of world states. He gave stable comparison coefficient and conducted the computation of these coefficients for a number of 132 independent states reflecting the number of independent countries at the year of the study, on the basis of data available in 1969. He reached an average for those co efficient for all states of the world, as follows:

(A) The average coefficient for computation of the national income to the state's area = 0.346.
(B) The average coefficient for computation of the national income to the population = 0.955.
(C) The average coefficient for computation of the state's area to the population = 0.879.
Muir linked all this in an equation for computation of the state's power(s) which equals = the State's Power.

But the method of Richard Muir did not take into consideration the variations in National Income growth rates and the population. While the growth rate of the National Income s rising quickly in countries of the North and in major and superpowers, this is not accompanied by a similar growth rate in the population of this state. This is in contrast with the case in countries of the South or Third World Countries which constitute the majority of World States. 

2- The Second Type: This concerns more comprehensive norms since it has dealt with the state's power on the basis of elements of these effective and influential powers. These powers include:

(A) The geographical or geo-political power: whether in terms of area only or the state's area along with other indicators such as the density of population and the density of railway lines.
(B) Human Power: some philosophers have reviewed the total population block, where as others focused on human power working in the state, together with their qualitative indicators, such as the technological level, the workforce in the conversion industries, the morals and behavior of the people…etc. Some philosophers like Ray S.Cline introduced the geographic and human factor in one factor which he called the "Critical Mass".

(C) Economic Power:  some philosophers interpreted the economic power of the state as the State's Gross National Income, and then they introduced other indicators to it such as energy and its sources, strategic minerals, industrial power, agricultural power, the size of the state's foreign trade. Whereas others chose to content themselves with the size.

(D) Political power: was introduced by a philosopher (Cline) as an immeasurable element (approximate) element that depends upon:

1.Evaluation of the state's strategic target and its relation with domestic balances and achievements together with the state's strategy for diplomatic action.

2.National wills which vary in strength and weakness according to national solidarity, domestic harmony (cultural, social and ideological) and the capability of the state's executive leadership.

3.Morale: commitment to the national strategic objectives, the strength of allegiance, the citizen's living standard, and satisfaction with the executive leadership of the state.

4.Military power: with its conventional and ultra-conventional aspects, nuclear, chemical, biological,…etc.
      The norm that adopted the most comprehensive ways is German's norm and method.

      In computing the state's total power, German depended on several factors, including major and secondary factors that affect the major ones by minimizing or increasing them. The major factors introduced by German are:

1 Geographic Factor:

      It was based on two considerations: the state's area and its relationship with population density as well as the state's area and its relationship with transportation means relying only on railways.

2 Population Factor:

      He did not include the population census in the state, but he considered the work force as the main factor adding other secondary factors such as its technical standard which is calculated according to energy consumption compared to annual per capita consumption of coal and electricity. The evaluation of the technical standards ranges from 1 to 5- fold the work force according to such consumption. He also added the work force in conversion industries. He did not evaluate it according to its size but rather hiked it 5 fold. The work force is also evaluated according to people's ethics and behavior (approximate) equivalent to 1/2 -1/3 of the work force. This should take into consideration the extent of the populations' success in achieving food self- sufficiency. We will find that these secondary factors according to measurements and estimates show major changes in measurements of the human factor. This measurement size reaches more than triple the total size of population in Britain, Germany and Poland, or more than double the population size in the U.S, Canada, Australia, Belgium and Czechoslovakia, or to an estimation that is far less than the size of the population and may go down to half the population as in china. In India and Brazil it is only equivalent to one third and one fourth consecutively.

3  the Economic Factor:

      In measurements of the economic factor, German focused on the total of industrial production as a main factor that includes the annual production of steel in millions of tons, coal in millions of tons, manganese, 5 million tons, oil in millions of metric tons, electricity transformed into a coefficient of coal production in millions of tons. He also introduced secondary factors such as economic guidance applied in states with totalitarian regimes, where production is subjected to governmental ownership and supervision (communist states). He equated the economic guidance coefficient with the gross economic production, thus doubling the industrial production in socialist countries, adding a 5-10% coefficient for steel production to the developed countries, while deducting the same percentage from third world countries. This was applied to the production of oil, other minerals and engineering equipment.

4 the Military Factor:

      Was introduced by German according to the size of human military power in million personnel.

5 the Nuclear Factor:

      The effect of this factor has been inflated by German to 26 elements as follows: 3 elements for the geographic factor, 6 elements for the human factor, including one element that represents the population's work force in millions, 4 elements for subsidiary factors, one final element for finding the total factor affecting the population (13 elements for the economic factor, including 5 main elements and 5 estimated subsidiary elements, 3 elements for calculation of the totals (and one element for the military factor and element for the nuclear factor, one element for the state's total power).

      The most important point affecting the credibility of the norm of computation for the state's total power and introduction of its weight in strategic balances are:

The lack of equilibrium in classifying the state's total power elements, for we may find that the geographic factor represents 10% or 5% for countries of nuclear club, whereas the human factor represent 21.2% or 10.6% for nuclear states, the economic factor constitutes 68.6% or 34.3% for nuclear states, the conventional military factor represents 0.2% and the nuclear factor constitutes 49.8% for nuclear countries.
Inflation of economic power for communist totalitarian regimes by introducing the economic guidance coefficient which doubles the economic weight of these states. As a result of this, German placed Poland Czechoslovakia and eastern Germany- before the unification of two Germanys- among the strongest 19 states in the world, surpassing other states which are stronger, which has been proved to be incorrect, since the totalitarian political regime had weakened the economies of those states and even resulted in the disintegration of the soviet union itself. The totalitarian regime in china, whose economic system was vaccinated with the capitalist method, could achieve a strong economic take off.
The norm of Ray S. Cline: cline defined the state's national power as "a mixture of strategic, military, economic and political factors of strength and weakness. This reflects excessive attention to the military power of the state, in addition to the geographic effect, such as the state's size, location, natural borders and the other sources of power such as the size of the population, the availability of raw materials, economic structure, the interminglement of races, social cohesion, stability of political concepts, the efficiency of the decision-making process and finally: the so-called "national sprit" which cannot be felt.
      Cline considers that the elements detailed in his aforementioned definition of the national power of the state are the components that constitute the equation for computing the Perceived Power (P.P), considering that the serious strategic evaluation of the world's states indicates that only 40-50 states form the international balance of power. The rest of the states are either states inflective weights in the elements of real power, and could therefore be neglected, or they have political affiliations that includes their powers within those power attracting states and effective in the geographic theatre or are part of an alliance, and accordingly, with a weakened influence at the international level or even on the developments at the state's regional level. But this does not mean total neglect of these states and their population in the long range strategic considerations or the humanitarian considerations, because some sub-elements with their slight quantitative sizes could be sufficient to reach a general approximate estimation of the state's power. In order to make the measurements possible and easy to reach, the estimation of the state's power is conducted using a wider concept which is not concerned with the details. Results would be very close and not quite different from the detailed and scrutinized results.

Cline explained his method in his famous equation:

The state's perceived power = the vital mass

Population + area + (economic power = military power) * national strategy + national will.

Pp = (C +E + M) * (S + W)   

In this equation, he used the following component:

The most important merits of Cline's method are as follows:

Distributing the weight to the state's various powers in a more accurate manner such as:
In this method there is more stress on the state's traditional powers in comparison with the method of German, and in certain states it surpasses 50% of the state's gross power.
      Cline considered that states with population less than 15 million people are states with no weight, and as such have no perceived power. But there are some states with low populations which have influences that are incompatible with their population as a result of other effective factors such as the strategic location, economic power or military power. Israel is a suitable example for such states, as a result of its military and nuclear powers although its population is about 5 million. Saudi Arabia is also an example with a population of 15 million people, but its national income stands at about 100 billion U.S dollars annually (being the world's biggest oil exporting country). There is also New Zealand with its 3.4 million populations and a national income of 23 billion dollar, and Singapore with 3 million people and a national income of 18 billion dollars, due to its distinguished strategic location and its influence in world trade. As for the perceived vital mass of states, we find that Arab states which are not include by Cline in the powerful states comprise most of the (16) countries out of (23) countries.

Cline incorporated within the measurements of the conventional military power two types of measurements:

The first category: measured estimates: these are based on human fighting power, which does not mean the number of military human power only, but also the measurement of the qualitative numbers by introducing the performance of the human power during previous wars and armed conflicts, the morale and the level of training …etc. Also included in the evaluation is the weaponry, the major military ware linked to both quantities and quality, the extent of availability of important fighting equipment of advanced technologies. Again, the radar systems, advanced warning, command and control systems and missile and air defense and anti -tank systems have become part of requirements of victory in military operations: evaluation of the military power is also affected by the size of military expenditures as an additional evaluation for estimation of military power and the availability of strategic reserves together with the efficiency of their mobilization plans, training, the system for raising the levels of fighting preparedness, the extent of self-sufficiency in manufacturing arms, ammunitions, military ware, or the state's dependence on foreign powers to import its military requirements.
The second: unmeasured estimates: these include perceived estimates such as the morale, the quality and efficiency of military leadership, the extent of conformity and cohesion of the state's higher strategy and the military strategy. This is in addition to the strategic proximity coefficient, represented by swift movement, ability for strategic maneuvering, the availability of a strategic depth inside the state's territories or through seeking the help of military bases and forces outside its borders.
      Cline also conducted, in his own methods, a clear evaluation which has its weight pertaining to the state's strategic target and national will. He made the weight measurement for each of these elements the number (1) which would then be multiplied by the size of material elements in the state's total power. This could lead to doubling the state's total power if there it has a comprehensive national strategy with its objectives, interests and targets, together with a strong national will. On the contrary, if the state lacks a clear national target and a strategy to implement it, this would lead to the fading of the state's power in its comprehensive sense. Cline has linked the evaluation of the state's strategic target to the availability of a general concept inside the citizen and the people supporting this target. He also linked it to the domestic achievements such as the balance of powers, individual rights inside the society and the availability of an honorable life for every individual. Cline also linked the evaluation of the state's strategic goal to the strategy of the state's diplomatic activity, foreign relations and its link to the state's military strategy.

      The national will is also linked -according to Cline- to the people's social unity within the nation's political borders, and the impact of this social unity behind the state's strategic goals i.e. the level of the power and zeal of the national will in support of the state's policy and strategy which must be clear and comprehensible to the people and enjoys its support.

      According to Cline's measurements, he considers that three states have an international strategic concept in view of their international relations, namely: the United States, Russia and China. As for other major powers: Britain, France, Japan, Germany and Italy, they have emerged after world war 2 with links to the United States, but the extent of these links differed from time to time tending to form regional groupings –such as the European Union. Despite the economic power of such groups, their effect in the political arenas has diminished to a large extent.

      Regional powers have emerged, but their influence at the international level may be very limited though their regional influence is possibly very clear and effective as they impose themselves. These include Romania, Cuba, Israel, Singapore, Iran and New Zealand.

      The national will does not have a stable weight, but is rather variable, affected by the extent of popular participation in the decision-making process and participation in domestic and foreign strategic positions, the values adhered to by the people's support of its political leadership, particularly in times of crises and wars. This is in addition to the people's national objectives and targets declared by this leadership or not declared, but are known to the people.

Cline has indicated three pillars for the national will:

The level of national cohesion, (33%)
The strength of the political leadership (34%).
The conformity of the higher strategy of the state with national interests and their achievement of these interests (33%).
The values of national cohesion are classified into two values by Cline:

Cultural harmony and integration (25%).
Regional harmony and integration (8%).
He also divided the power of the national leadership into two categories:

Executive leadership ability (17%).
Level of social discipline (17%).
      Cline has agreed to the view of some analysts about the non-feasibility of setting an average to measure political goals and national will for many of the world's small and developing states.

The amendment of Cline's method by MAJ. Gen Ahmad Fakhr (former director of Nasser Academy: he adopted Cline's equation for measuring the national power, of the state (the comprehendible power) but he added two more factors to it:
The state's influence at the international and regional levels. (i)

The state's diplomatic capabilities (d).

Thus the state's power measurement equation is:

Maj.gen. Fakhr has thus added another factor to unmeasured estimates, which is the factor of the state's international and regional influence and the diplomatic capabilities of the state. This is an addition of two measurement factors but they subject to estimation.

      The power of the state's influence (i): according to the concept of Maj.Gen. Fakhr, means the ability of the state's political and information to convince the international and regional public opinion of the legitimacy of the state's national goals, interests and targets and their conformity with the goals and interests of peoples and states of the region. Furthermore, these goals and interests must be proved to be in consistence with the interests of the rest of world countries and peoples. Thus, the matter would not be subject to measurement, but rather to estimation. But the state's diplomatic ability (d) means the extent of success of the state's diplomatic corps to covey the trends of the state's political system outside its borders. This is in addition to the legitimacy and prudeness of decisions adopted by the political leadership, particularly at times of crises and persuasion of political systems in other states of the correctness of the state's political trends both regionally and internationally.

Summary of measurement methods of the state's total power:

      This section of the study has tackled the methods of computation of the state's total power focusing on the most common methods. These are methods which review the political, economic, military, social, and nuclear and morale of the state. It then discusses the German and Cline methods together with other methods that focus on the most important elements of the total power of the state, such as the methods of Fuchs and Muir. The study reached the conclusion that the total methods were the most accurate, and that the measurement of each element must be conducted in a comparative framework between states. To do this, two steps must be followed upon measurement:

a. The first step: An internal comparison between states for each element separately, with the aim of transforming absolute figures to relative weight figures which is liable to be added to other elements. This is done by following the method of the element's criterion value by dividing the result of subtraction of the arithmetical average (AA) by (the actual element value) (AEV). This criterion deviation is the result of subtraction of the arithmetical average from the element's actual value divided by the number of units represented in the study.

      German based that on the size of the armed forces in Egypt (0.445) and Israel (0.149) compared to one million men. However, Egypt and Israel are equal with regard to the human factor 1:1. German depended on converting the human factor to a work force plus the technical standard and people's morals, rather than on the number of population alone. As for the nuclear factor, the percentage is entirely in Israeli's favor, turning the total power balance in Israel's favor at the rate of 0.9: for Egypt to 1: for Israel.

b. according to Cline's pattern:

Egypt outnumbers Israel in the following:

(vital mass) area + population at the rate of 65: for Egypt to 1: for Israel.
(economic power) at the rate of 4: for Egypt to 1: for Israel.
      Cline based hi estimates on the state's gross national product as well as the change from peace production to war production, giving Egypt the upper hand.

Israel outnumbers Egypt in the following:

(conventional military power) at the rate of 0.57: for Egypt to 1: for Israel.

      Cline introduced the qualitative and quantitative factors in all that relates to the armed forces (level of war performance, organization, morale, personnel and weapons efficiency, command and control and mobilization of strategic reserves…etc.)

(nuclear power) at the rate of Zero: for Egypt to 1: for Israel.

(other forces) calculates at the rate of 0.59: for Egypt to 1: for Israel.

therefore, the total power according to Cline means the total equilibrium balance is in favor of Egypt at the rate of 2.26: for Egypt to 1: for Israel.

      The above highlights the need for a more suitable criterion for calculating the total power of Arab states and that of the states posing a threat in the region. Such a criterion must be more accurate with regard to strategic balances. To overcome the weak points shown in German and Cline patterns, new brance elements of the state's total power should be introduced, particularly with respect to military power. Measurements in the latter area should include the size of forces before and after mobilization, personnel's qualitative efficiency factors, health and physical fitness, scientific and cultural standard, morale, loyalty to homeland and skills in the use of weapons. This is in addition to the type of commanders and their ability to command, plan and manage operations and executed the assignment specified by the political leadership. Add to this the quality of main and supplementary combat weapons of the land, naval and air forces and the availability of strategic reserves of locally produced weapons, ammunitions and equipment. Also worthy of consideration is the combat efficiency of field formations and coordination between them and the air force as well as fire power and quick mobility and the level of warning and combat readiness. Also vital is the intelligence organs' ability to collect and analyze information, submit prompt reports, prepare the state, people and land for war and strategically distribute the armed forces. The last domain is the nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological power and the means of its delivering to enemy's depth, as the fire power's weight in the state's total power balance is equal to the conventional military weight.

Bases for evaluation of the state's military capacity:

1  Factors affecting military power from a political, military perspective include:

The combat capabilities of the main branches of the armed forces and the popular defense forces to be mobilized under war circumstances and available deterrence capabilities.
Size of strategic storage of military requirements (weapons, ammunitions, spare parts, equipment, vehicles…etc). This is in addition to the replenishment capability.
Military command's strategic efficiency as regards planning and management of operations, including command and control.
Efficiency of mobilization plan, including the ability to mobilize the state's resources and potentials in favor of the war effort.
Degree of combat readiness of the armed forces, the popular defense forces and the civil defense forces.
Preparation of state's territory as operations theatre regarding military operations, materials procurement and transportation to further the military efforts. This is in addition to the invincibility and fortification of the domestic front against the enemy's air and mass destruction missiles attacks, protecting the population and strategic targets against such attacks.
2  Concept of military capability and factors affecting it:

      It concerns the military power's statistical statement which is used as a basis for making comparisons at various levels against external threat forces. The statement includes the human power and the size of type of units (squadrons) and formations (regiment).

      Several factors positively or negatively affect combat capability, including basic (invariable) factors such as weapon's efficiency, as well as main factors, including efficient and effective organization, relative balance between its elements, combat efficiency, size of land, naval and air forces during peace and war, military doctrine and command and control. This is in addition to other secondary (variable) factors such as the coefficient of general tactical use of arms known as the (field impact coefficient), land topography, timing, climate…etc).

3  Importance of examining qualitative efficiency:

      The accurate qualitative study of weapons has several positive and vital aspects in the military sphere, as they constitute the basis for building combat capability on sound foundations.

In the operation domain: accurate and practical planning is essential for the success of operations, and determination of the forces' strategic goals and assignments commensurate with their actual potentials and previous training. This is in addition to the commanders' strategic and mobilization abilities to manage operations and successfully fulfilled command and control assignments as dictated by the course of the battle, including new strategic and mobilization developments not incorporated in the original plan, promptly confronting them to deny the enemy the chance to achieve his goals and allow the forces to pursue the original combat plan and continue to take the initiative. To avoid such complicated enemy actions, they should have been expected in advance during preparations for the battle and how to confront them and taking appropriate decisions by providing blocking and destruction abilities deterring the enemy from achieving its goals.
In estimation of combat potential needs for weapons and military equipment:
      This is achievable by differentiating between various weapons and equipment offers and estimating the required number of different weapons according to their technical and tactical properties and qualitative weight, enabling them to realize supremacy over similar enemy weapons regarding the ease of training, usage, maintenance by fighters and providing spare parts by technician.

in military manufacturing domain:

 
      The military manufacturing policy should be oriented to realize an important strategic goal of ensuring self-sufficiency for weapons, equipment and ammunition without the need of importing them from abroad. This is achievable either by domestic development through research and development centers or by obtaining licenses to import them from abroad. It is to be taken into account that in any weapons deal the purchase of readymade weapons and equipment should not exceed 25% while another 25% should be assembled inside the military factories. Also 50% should be completely manufactured locally. It is vital to test the weapons and equipment types of appropriate qualitative weight and technical and tactical properties to confront enemy present and future weapons developments, achieving supremacy over the enemy for the next 10 years before replacing them with new equipment. This is in addition to the ability of manufacturing different weapons' supplementary equipment according to their technical and tactical properties, such as nocturnal gear and converting ordinary ammunitions into smart ones and laser guided equipment.

sticking to war principles:

      When planning and managing fighting actions, war principles should be observed by gathering an appropriate size of forces of suitable quality for the main fighting efforts, realizing the operation goals and forces' missions and achieving the surprise element, quick mobilization and maneuvering freedom as well as ensuring continuous command and control via different communication mediums during the war. Important points also include maintaining the target and never deviate from it, flexibility in plan execution and attitudes imposed by the enemy, continuous logistics support however critical the situation may be. Preserving the initiative and restoring it if lost to the enemy at any stage of the battle. This is in addition to achieving coordination between various corps branches on the one hand and neighboring formations and units in the battle on the other as well as various fighting corps (marines, armor, artillery engineers… etc). Add to this permanent fighting readiness achieved by determining hostile intentions warning period of no less than seven days and another warning of commencement of hostilities of no less than three days. The forces should also be trained on shifting from a normal readiness stage to other readiness stages before reaching the maximum preparedness stage as well as the required means of communications including the recall of reserves. Finally, the morale of the forces should be boosted by instilling convictions of the fighting cause as well as confidence in the corps and command. Also important is the belief in Allah and the defense of the land, people and sanctuaries.

Provision of modern battle's basic elements: they include direct and indirect fire power from various means ensuring continuous fire support for attack and defense operations such as fighter planes, helicopters and artillery. This is in addition to the shock force achieved by the armor corps resulting in deep penetration of enemy defenses, fulfilling the direct assignments at the end of each fighting day. Add to this the convenience for achieving the image of a modern joint corps battle (attack, defense, direct clashes, chasing, and organized tactical withdrawal in order to resume attack later)
4\ measurement of qualitative efficiency elements:

      They are encapsulated in the three organizational elements and military analysts agree that the balance percentage of the land forces organizational elements are as follows:

Command and control element: representing 13% to 18% or a general percentage average of 15%.
Combat and assisting element: representing 65% to 75% or a general percentage average of 70%.
Temporary administrative element (logistic): representing 13% to 17% or a general percentage average of 15%.
Qualitative military supremacy requirements:
      To study these requirements we have to divide the desired military supremacy to its three basic levels in order to prepare the main rules for comparison:

Qualitative supremacy in war: it is aimed at ensuring the realization of the war's strategic objectives and the success of formations and field units in fulfilling their combat assignments. To plug the quantitative gap in forces relationships during war, the quantitative supremacy should be in domain greater than what is required for the combat and battle domain. Basic elements for achieving quantitative supremacy in war lie in the capability to credibly deter the enemy, conduct early warning and the ability to repel any sudden attack (enemy presumptive strikes). This is in addition to the ability to utilize the state's supremacy resources such as Arab human power as opposed to the enemy's human weak human power, and the ability to absorb losses by fortifying strategic targets, population areas, defenses, air and missile defense means and quick compensation of losses.

Quantitative supremacy in operations:

      It concerns the type of supremacy that ensures military victory at the land, naval and air operation theatre. In other words it means achieving supremacy at the mobilization level (between the strategic and the tactical). This is where the great impact of quantitative supremacy is evident, allowing the compensation of the enemy's quantitative supremacy: the enemy's quantitative air supremacy has its impact on the progress of operations and may force the armored formations to resort to the defensive attitude. So, to curtail the enemy's air supremacy, the air defense missile could be used to inflict heavy losses on the enemy. This will deny the enemy its air supremacy and restore to our air force the air supremacy that enables it to ensure the air protection and fire power support for our land forces. The same applies to enemy quantitative armor supremacy: the proper use of anti-armor missile could heavy armor losses forcing the enemy armor to curtail attacks and maneuvers and remain on the defensive. This will give our armored forces maneuvering freedom to launch attack operations. Also, a wider use of multi-barrel missile launchers will compensate for the shortage in artillery battalion. One battalion comprised of 12 missile launchers each producing 40 missiles in a single blast, will launch 480 missiles in one blast, or the equivalent of the fire power of 40 single-barrel artillery battalion. This clearly shows that the numerical quantitative comparison of power elements does not reflect the real weight of forces relationships: the evaluation deviates from the none effective factor. Therefore, we should make a qualitative comparison that does not over look the quantitative effect and how to compensate for it to achieve a clear and accurate vision.

Qualitative supremacy in battle:

 
      This tactical level is aimed at realizing a specific military goal, such as: the occupation of a territory or the defense of it; the destruction of the main enemy forces and formations or paralyzing their actions. Such supremacy is basically due to the quality of the elements comprising the fighting gathering of the combat units (squadron or battalion) that ensure the realization of the objective. Determining the level of the quality of these elements (the quality of fighters, quality of weapons and the fighting method for executing the assignment) lays the foundation for the forces' relationships in order to realize the fighting mission of the unit and in order to defeat the enemy, the focus should first and foremost be made on knowing the nature of area on which the battle will be fought and the maximum utilization of these dimensions, particularly as regards camouflage, fortification, freedom of movements and maneuvering. This is in addition to ascertaining the enemy forces' elements of strength and weakness, focusing the attack on the weak elements to further weaken them and seek to weaken the strong elements by neutralizing or isolating them with appropriate weapons to avoid their participation in the main battle. This requires proper, prior reconnaissance operations to survey the territory and enemy, drawing scenarios for his next operation and using the tactics that aborts its plan. The use of special forces, backed by anti-armor missiles, in the form of ambushes and surprise raids is the best tactic to confuse, surprise and inflict heavy losses on the enemy. This is in addition to striving to achieve a minimum quantitative supremacy or equilibrium, compensating for the quantitative shortage by realizing a qualitative supremacy in the fighter, the weapon, the command and control as well as in the fighting method.

The criteria for measuring qualitative efficiency:

      The difficulty in measuring qualitative efficiency lies in the fact that it is a relative issue, dealing with intangible matters. The problem is whether the measurement should be made in general terms or by making a comparison with a counterpart (the enemy) from among the powers posing a threat. Many qualitative measurement studies could be summed up as follows:

(A) Human decision criterion:

      Those in favor of this criterion say that the human factor is the sole element that ensures continuity throughout all stages, from the manufacturing stage to the decision to go to war. Other decisions hinging on the human factor include: the drawing of strategies, selecting the military doctrine, determining the method of fighting and maneuvering as well as selecting the targets. This is in addition to choosing the appropriate organization and gathering method for the operation as well as the strategic, tactical and mobilization plans. Consequently the human decision criterion could be assessed as very sound, less sound or unsound.

(B)  Financial criterion (defense budget):

This method depends on the size of defense expenditure or the financial benefit spent for the sake of gaining qualitative development e.g. the state's qualitative development is measured according to the size of its military expenditure or its security and defense allocations. It is also compared to the size of similar expenditure of the states posing an external threat.

      The same method is used for comparing expenditure in training and engineering preparation of the operations theatre. The process continues until the stage of comparing the price of a weapon to its cost for the enemy. This method of measurement is based on the theory that each spent dollar or pound has achieved the aspired results in its sphere of investment. The comparison is not confined to total defense spending, but also includes its detailed items. The worst type of defense spending is that which locates more than 50% for salaries and perision of soldiers and officers and only 5% to research and development. In fact, the largest part of the defense spending should be devoted to upgrading the combat efficiency of soldiers, weapons, equipment, fighting preparedness and war theatre preparation. Also no less than 15% should be allocated for research and development.

(C) Technology criterion (data base, information, communications):

This method measures quality on the basis of the size of the technology involved with regard to equipment, weapon, formation, command and control and manufacture…etc. This type of measurement has its special significance. We are now in the middle of the technology and information revolution. The computer sphere has achieved successive advances, reaching the so-called "generation" age, and making it impossible to distinguish between one system and another. Also, the communication revolution has led to what is known as the small global village, engulfing earth planet in its entirety. Nevertheless, the criterion could not, for example, measure the moral as an effective factor in combat operations, nor could it measure the ability to absorb losses.

(D) Performance efficiency criterion:

According to this method, the main criterion for every decision is the quality of its execution: to measure the quality of manufacture, the criterion should be the quality of the product. The training decision is judged by the quality of training while the combat decision is judged by the performance of the combat troops, and so forth. This criterion measures the quality of performance and execution: excellent, good, satisfactory or bad.

Concept of combat efficiency:

      Combat efficiency is the combination of two main armed forces' elements: the fighter and the weapon and equipment, under a perfect organization to ensure the armed forces' quantitative and qualitative capability to manage the armed conflict at the operations theatre. This should be done with maximum efficiency and minimum losses of forces and means under all circumstances, achieving the state's political and military objective.

Combat efficiency elements include:

Combat readiness: it involves the forces' completion percentages (officers, non-commissioned officers and soldiers), the system of command and control, discipline, morale, plans and operations documents. This is in addition to grasping the method of execution and the various stages of combat assignments.
Combat training: it involves the method of planning, recording and executing the training assignments for fighters and branch units (from detachment to battalion), during the day and at night, training facilities, results of individual and tactical firing exercise as well as training units formations on the execution of operational missions.
Technical state: it includes the technical state of weapons, ammunition, equipment, and vehicles as well as the maintenance and spare parts situation.
Organization and management:
      It involves mobilization plans, recalling of reserves, the level of their training, the method for compensation of losses and review of organizational documents and plans.

Management's efficiency: it involves completion percentage of self-sufficiency in fuel, spare parts, food stuffs, water, supplies, efficient management staff, maintenance workshops and administrative planning.
Morale: it includes the level of military discipline (absence cases, military crimes, cases and penalties) and whether the fighters are convinced of the legality and just defense of the homeland, and adherence to religious principles.
      Military efficiency's co relationship with military power and military capability:

      Military power is one of the state's total power, while military capability involves the state's capability to devote various potentials in all spheres for supporting the state's military power (the mechanism and effective use of the military power to achieve the political, military and strategic goals). However, combat efficiency means a group of elements that interact together to realize the best use of military potentials.

      There is a steady co relationship between combat efficiency and combat capability: the better the combat efficiency the better the combat capability, e.g. efficient training positively affects the unit's combat capability and vice-versa as any decline in one of the combat efficiency elements will adversely affect the fighting capability of the unit or formation.

Prepared by Rtd Staff

Maj.General Husam Eldin Mohammad Suwailem: